Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  17.0  20.6  25.7  32.7  36.9  40.9  40.9  F  F  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.6  43.2  37.7  37.7  28.3  22.6  15.8  15.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0 -22.0   3.0  15.0 -13.0  19.0  51.0  51.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   9.0   7.0  13.0   2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.78

 EP162025 251009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.