Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162025 251009 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 113.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.3 19.6 25.2 30.6 32.1 38.1 44.3 44.3 F N N U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 48.2 42.7 37.8 33.3 27.6 20.8 20.8 20.8 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 15.0 3.0 -16.0 2.0 60.0 53.0 53.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 49.0 46.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 44.0 U U U VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 7.0 4.0 8.0 10.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.06 EP162025 251009 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 113.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.