Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.60 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.8 23.9 30.9 32.0 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.1 N N U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 52.7 52.7 43.3 43.3 37.6 30.8 30.8 30.8 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 -1.0 -4.0 -12.0 26.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 U U VU U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 4.0 10.0 11.0 4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.70 EP162025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.60 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.