Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162025 251010 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 115.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.9 34.3 34.4 37.8 42.3 47.4 47.4 47.4 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 38.3 38.3 32.6 32.6 25.8 21.7 21.7 21.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 -7.0 -8.0 31.0 49.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 48.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 VU VU VU U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 7.0 7.0 0.0 1.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.92 EP162025 251010 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 115.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.