Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.7 32.5 34.2 37.7 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 38.3 32.6 32.6 32.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 U VU VU VU U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 7.0 25.0 42.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 47.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 9.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.58 EP162025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.