Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162025 251010 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.70 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.4 34.1 37.0 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.6 37.6 37.6 41.6 41.6 41.6 41.6 41.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 38.0 40.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 2.0 2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.54 EP162025 251010 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.70 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.