Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 100.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 153.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 40.0 39.1 42.7 35.5 26.7 21.6 18.4 VU U U VU U N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 37.0 42.0 43.0 24.0 21.0 8.0 1.0 U U N N U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 122.9 108.5 91.1 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 124.0 137.0 86.0 72.0 56.0 -29.0 16.0 2.0 F VF F N N VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 87.0 86.0 86.0 82.0 76.0 67.0 62.0 57.0 VF F F F F N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 -6.0 -4.0 -4.0 -16.0 -13.0 -13.0 N N F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 1.9% 6.2% 4.1% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 5.8% 3.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 2.1% 1.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 4.4% 2.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 EP172025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 100.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 153.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 40.0 39.1 42.7 35.5 26.7 21.6 18.4 VF F F VF F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 87.0 86.0 86.0 82.0 76.0 67.0 62.0 57.0 VU U U U U N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 -6.0 -4.0 -4.0 -16.0 -13.0 -13.0 N N U U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%