Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172025 251010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    101.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.2  45.6  42.0  39.0  30.1  24.4  22.3  33.6 VU VU VU  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  50.0  37.0  24.0  25.0  14.0  29.0  39.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  49.0  46.0  53.0  11.0  11.0  36.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  82.0  79.0  72.0  67.0  60.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -7.0  -9.0  -7.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        0.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        5.7%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.3%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.0%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 EP172025 251010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    101.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.2  45.6  42.0  39.0  30.1  24.4  22.3  33.6 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  82.0  79.0  72.0  67.0  60.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -7.0  -9.0  -7.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%