Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172025 251010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    104.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  36.4  35.4  30.9  25.1  20.4  34.4  34.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  13.0  29.0  37.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  55.0 -19.0  10.0  10.0  59.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  66.0  60.0  50.0  50.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0 -13.0  -6.0 -12.0 -12.0  N  N  F  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        1.8%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       10.7%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        4.4%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        4.4%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        4.0%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%        7.7%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.9%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        4.1%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 EP172025 251010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    104.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  36.4  35.4  30.9  25.1  20.4  34.4  34.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  66.0  60.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0 -13.0  -6.0 -12.0 -12.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%