Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172025 251010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    105.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  35.6  33.3  27.1  24.6  27.9  27.9  27.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  25.0  22.0  17.0  10.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 110.1 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0 -11.0  18.0   7.0  22.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  61.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0 -11.0 -12.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 EP172025 251010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    105.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  35.6  33.3  27.1  24.6  27.9  27.9  27.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  61.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0 -11.0 -12.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%