Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172025 251011 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 107.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.6 32.0 25.4 24.5 23.5 45.2 45.2 45.2 U U N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 21.0 16.0 11.0 34.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 20.0 34.0 10.0 50.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 U U N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 70.0 66.0 63.0 57.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -10.0 -11.0 -9.0 -6.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 F F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.4% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.1% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 EP172025 251011 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 107.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.6 32.0 25.4 24.5 23.5 45.2 45.2 45.2 F N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 70.0 66.0 63.0 57.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 N N N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -10.0 -11.0 -9.0 -6.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 U U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%