Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172025 251011 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 30.7 27.0 23.5 35.3 59.9 59.9 59.9 U U N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 17.0 12.0 21.0 40.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 119.6 125.0 117.3 100.5 100.5 100.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 33.0 28.0 63.0 36.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 U N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 67.0 63.0 59.0 50.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -11.0 -7.0 -6.0 -10.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.2% 1.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 2.0% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.52 EP172025 251011 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 30.7 27.0 23.5 35.3 59.9 59.9 59.9 F N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 67.0 63.0 59.0 50.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 N N N F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -11.0 -7.0 -6.0 -10.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%