Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172025 251012 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.6 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.9%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%        4.3%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       19.8%       11.3%       15.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 EP172025 251012 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%