Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  16.3  15.6  15.3  19.0  17.2  14.7  15.2  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  17.0  20.0  21.0  23.0  18.0  14.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 125.1 125.1 125.1 122.9 120.7 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  14.0  20.0  31.0  52.0  37.0  -1.0  21.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       16.5%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        8.1%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        7.3%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.2%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       24.4%       13.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%       11.2%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%       10.0%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        8.2%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%       17.4%       11.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 EP182025 251024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  16.3  15.6  15.3  19.0  17.2  14.7  15.2  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%