Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  14.0  16.2  17.4  20.3  18.5  19.5  23.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  17.0  19.0  20.0  17.0  14.0  14.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 125.1 125.1 125.1 122.9 116.5 116.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  30.0  58.0  63.0  57.0   0.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       12.9%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        5.4%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.6%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.5%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       16.7%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        6.1%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%        5.8%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        4.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%        8.4%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP182025 251025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  14.0  16.2  17.4  20.3  18.5  19.5  23.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%