Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251025 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  15.2  16.9  16.9  18.0  20.9  21.1  24.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  21.0  20.0  20.0  17.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 120.1 120.1 117.9 117.9 111.5 109.4 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  77.0  87.0  88.0  -5.0  36.0 -11.0  41.0  N  N  F  F  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        5.8%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h       13.0%       36.4%       24.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       22.6%       14.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       22.6%       13.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%       19.8%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h        7.9%       44.4%       26.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%       26.5%       15.6%
 55kt / 48h       14.4%       15.3%       14.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%       14.8%       10.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%       15.0%        9.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP182025 251025 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  15.2  16.9  16.9  18.0  20.9  21.1  24.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%