Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  17.5  17.9  15.8  19.2  19.1  23.2  27.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  19.0  19.0  18.0  14.0  14.0  15.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1 110.1 107.9 107.9 105.7 101.5  99.4  91.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  79.0  67.0  37.0  41.0  26.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  58.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.3%       18.6%       16.5%
 25kt / 24h       34.6%       58.6%       46.6%
 30kt / 24h       20.8%       50.6%       35.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.3%       50.6%       33.4%
 40kt / 24h       16.3%       47.8%       32.0%
 45kt / 36h       19.1%       63.5%       41.3%
 55kt / 36h       13.0%       48.9%       30.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%        7.0%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.0%       24.6%       15.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%       14.9%        8.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP182025 251025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  17.5  17.9  15.8  19.2  19.1  23.2  27.5  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  58.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%