Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  17.1  18.9  18.1  17.9  20.2  25.1  28.4  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  16.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  13.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 107.9 105.7 101.5  99.4  91.6  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 101.0  49.0  30.0  40.0   8.0  13.0   2.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        6.5%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h       15.2%       30.7%       22.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       18.5%       14.0%
 35kt / 24h        6.6%       18.5%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%       18.5%       12.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.5%       32.5%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        5.5%       16.7%       11.1%
 55kt / 48h       13.8%        9.3%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        8.4%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        5.9%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 EP182025 251025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  17.1  18.9  18.1  17.9  20.2  25.1  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%