Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  18.6  21.1  21.0  19.4  25.1  28.6  35.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  11.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 105.7 105.7 105.7  99.4  97.4  89.8  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  40.0  28.0  29.0  34.0   0.0  29.0  46.0  F  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.8%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%        9.7%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.6%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.0%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        3.8%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        8.1%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        2.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        2.4%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.4%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 EP182025 251026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  18.6  21.1  21.0  19.4  25.1  28.6  35.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%