Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251026 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  18.6  18.7  20.2  19.3  24.9  27.2  34.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  14.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 105.7 105.7 105.7  99.4  97.4  95.5  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  -8.0  -7.0  19.0  16.0  22.0  11.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  62.0  60.0  52.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.4%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       11.7%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.2%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        5.6%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        4.9%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       10.1%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        3.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.6%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 EP182025 251026 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  18.6  18.7  20.2  19.3  24.9  27.2  34.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  62.0  60.0  52.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%