Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  23.7  25.4  25.4  28.6  30.7  33.0  34.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  11.0   7.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 101.5 101.5  99.4  97.4  89.8  88.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  17.0  41.0  11.0  15.0  14.0  26.0  33.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 EP182025 251026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  23.7  25.4  25.4  28.6  30.7  33.0  34.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%