Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  23.8  24.6  24.8  28.8  29.0  31.9  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  11.0   7.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 106.5 106.5 104.4 102.4  94.8  93.0  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  25.0   0.0   4.0  -5.0  23.0  34.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   7.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 EP182025 251026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  23.8  24.6  24.8  28.8  29.0  31.9  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   7.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%