Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  24.5  24.1  27.2  28.3  29.1  29.4  30.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  13.0   9.0  10.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 106.5 104.4 104.4 100.5  98.5  96.6  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  15.0  10.0   5.0  25.0  11.0  46.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  45.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 EP182025 251027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  24.5  24.1  27.2  28.3  29.1  29.4  30.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  45.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%