Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  22.7  25.5  29.4  29.8  29.6  29.6  29.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0  12.0   9.0  12.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 104.4 102.4 100.5  98.5  96.6  94.8  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0 -23.0  -5.0   5.0   1.0  51.0  16.0  16.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 EP182025 251027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  22.7  25.5  29.4  29.8  29.6  29.6  29.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  N  N  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%