Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182025 251028 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 121.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.5 28.3 29.9 30.9 28.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 N N N U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.4 105.5 103.5 98.0 96.2 99.8 99.8 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 11.0 8.0 8.0 36.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 53.0 52.0 49.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.26 EP182025 251028 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 121.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.