Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182025 251028 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  31.0  30.8  30.4  31.1  33.5  33.5  33.5  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0   8.0   7.0   9.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.5 100.5  93.0  93.0  91.2  89.4  89.4  89.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   7.0   7.0  43.0  34.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.16

 EP182025 251028 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.