Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182025 251028 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 123.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.4 32.0 31.5 31.9 32.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 N U U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.8 93.0 93.0 91.2 89.4 94.8 94.8 94.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 5.0 45.0 28.0 31.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0 U U N U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 49.0 49.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 EP182025 251028 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 123.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.