Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182025 251029 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 124.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.8 35.1 35.5 35.3 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 U U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.2 96.2 96.2 94.4 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 31.0 48.0 15.0 -21.0 -49.0 -49.0 -49.0 -49.0 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 46.0 44.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.80 EP182025 251029 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 124.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.