Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012025 251002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     85.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.3  39.2  37.6  39.6  27.2  17.8  12.0  14.6 VU  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  51.0  52.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9 103.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  19.0  20.0  29.0  33.0  37.0  53.0  63.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -8.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        6.3%        4.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 IO012025 251002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     85.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.3  39.2  37.6  39.6  27.2  17.8  12.0  14.6 VF  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -8.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%