Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012025 251002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     84.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  33.5  30.6  31.8   9.8  25.4  24.5  28.1  U  U  U  U  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  92.7  83.0  91.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  20.0  29.0  35.0  34.0  33.0  60.0  65.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0  -6.0  -7.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        6.5%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        9.4%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        3.5%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        2.1%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        5.0%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 IO012025 251002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     84.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  33.5  30.6  31.8   9.8  25.4  24.5  28.1  F  F  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0  -6.0  -7.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%