Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012025 251003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     83.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  18.0  15.1  21.6  30.5  36.6  31.6  26.6  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 108.5  97.7  79.4  88.0  88.0  86.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  27.0   0.0  30.0  21.0  25.0  31.0  41.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  60.0  65.0  64.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -4.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 IO012025 251003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     83.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  18.0  15.1  21.6  30.5  36.6  31.6  26.6  N  N  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  60.0  65.0  64.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -4.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%