Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251003 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 67.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 14.2 13.7 16.7 23.7 35.0 33.8 34.2 F F F F N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 29.0 28.0 28.0 25.0 22.0 20.0 24.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 127.0 127.0 127.0 124.6 122.3 115.7 115.7 122.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 18.0 16.0 4.0 13.0 -12.0 -37.0 -37.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 46.0 43.0 40.0 37.0 33.0 31.0 30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 5.0 4.0 16.0 15.0 12.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.0% 4.7% 3.3% 25kt / 24h 8.1% 28.9% 18.5% 30kt / 24h 4.8% 16.4% 10.6% 35kt / 24h 2.1% 15.7% 8.9% 40kt / 24h 2.0% 15.7% 8.8% 45kt / 36h 6.2% 31.1% 18.6% 55kt / 36h 4.0% 15.6% 9.8% 55kt / 48h 13.2% 8.1% 10.6% 70kt / 48h 4.0% 5.0% 4.5% 65kt / 72h 3.6% 4.0% 3.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.28 IO022025 251003 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 67.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 14.2 13.7 16.7 23.7 35.0 33.8 34.2 N U U N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 46.0 43.0 40.0 37.0 33.0 31.0 30.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 5.0 4.0 16.0 15.0 12.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%