Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  13.8  16.7  19.9  33.5  35.3  37.9  33.5  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  28.0  28.0  26.0  22.0  20.0  20.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 119.6 122.0 122.0 117.3 110.7 110.7 117.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  16.0   4.0  18.0  -6.0 -29.0 -39.0 -17.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  33.0  29.0  32.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   5.0   5.0   7.0  13.0  11.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        8.2%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       35.5%       24.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       23.4%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%       23.4%       14.5%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%       23.4%       14.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       29.1%       18.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       14.5%        9.5%
 55kt / 48h       11.1%        6.1%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        3.8%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        3.0%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 IO022025 251003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  13.8  16.7  19.9  33.5  35.3  37.9  33.5  U  U  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  33.0  29.0  32.0  31.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   5.0   5.0   7.0  13.0  11.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%