Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251003 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 66.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.4 16.7 19.0 24.6 35.8 35.2 36.0 35.7 F F N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 28.0 26.0 22.0 18.0 17.0 15.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.6 114.6 112.3 112.3 105.7 101.5 101.5 105.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 4.0 18.0 13.0 -12.0 -37.0 -37.0 -21.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 38.0 38.0 35.0 30.0 29.0 29.0 27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 17.0 13.0 13.0 20.0 N N N N U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.6% 13.5% 12.1% 25kt / 24h 17.9% 40.7% 29.3% 30kt / 24h 12.1% 29.7% 20.9% 35kt / 24h 9.4% 29.7% 19.6% 40kt / 24h 5.8% 28.5% 17.1% 45kt / 36h 5.7% 25.9% 15.8% 55kt / 36h 3.4% 12.4% 7.9% 55kt / 48h 6.6% 4.1% 5.4% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 2.6% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.16 IO022025 251003 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 66.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.4 16.7 19.0 24.6 35.8 35.2 36.0 35.7 U N N N F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 38.0 38.0 35.0 30.0 29.0 29.0 27.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 17.0 13.0 13.0 20.0 N N N N F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%