Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251003 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 49.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.1 19.9 23.7 32.3 36.7 38.4 36.2 26.3 F N N U U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 26.0 25.0 22.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.6 114.6 112.3 112.3 105.7 101.5 105.7 112.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 18.0 13.0 -6.0 -29.0 -39.0 -17.0 -16.0 U U U U VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 38.0 37.0 32.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 5.0 4.0 8.0 14.0 12.0 17.0 18.0 N N N U U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.3% 6.3% 5.3% 25kt / 24h 6.6% 19.8% 13.2% 30kt / 24h 4.2% 11.0% 7.6% 35kt / 24h 3.2% 10.7% 7.0% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 10.0% 5.5% 45kt / 36h 1.7% 9.9% 5.8% 55kt / 36h 0.9% 3.4% 2.1% 55kt / 48h 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.16 IO022025 251003 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.1 19.9 23.7 32.3 36.7 38.4 36.2 26.3 U N N N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 38.0 37.0 32.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 26.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 5.0 4.0 8.0 14.0 12.0 17.0 18.0 N N N F F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%