Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     64.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  28.8  29.2  32.5  34.1  32.1  28.2  23.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0  16.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  15.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.7  91.5  91.5  91.5  89.4  89.4  89.4  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  16.0  18.0   6.0 -16.0 -32.0 -21.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  32.0  34.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  30.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        2.4%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        5.7%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        2.7%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.4%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        2.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 IO022025 251004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     64.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  28.8  29.2  32.5  34.1  32.1  28.2  23.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  32.0  34.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  30.0  33.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%