Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251004 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10     62.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  40.4  42.2  42.3  35.4  36.4  29.6  19.7  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  14.0  12.0  10.0   8.0  10.0  13.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.4  69.4  65.5  65.5  59.8  59.8  69.4  71.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -31.0 -48.0 -26.0 -19.0 -71.0 -42.0  -2.0  U VU VU VU  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  31.0  32.0  31.0  32.0  29.0  30.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   8.0   7.0   4.0   4.0  10.0  11.0   8.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.7%        5.4%       15.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%        4.9%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.7%        2.8%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.7%        2.8%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.7%        2.2%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 IO022025 251004 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10     62.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.