Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     61.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  38.4  35.8  36.1  35.2  29.0  22.1  24.1  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  11.0   9.0   8.0  11.0  14.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.4  77.4  69.8  69.8  69.8  77.4  77.4  79.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -36.0 -18.0 -16.0 -59.0 -33.0 -18.0 -63.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  31.0  32.0  29.0  28.0  28.0  27.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   7.0   7.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.26

 IO022025 251005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     61.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.