Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.5  38.0  40.5  40.9  31.2  26.9  19.3  23.9  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  13.0  15.0  18.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  87.4  91.5  95.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -27.0 -44.0 -62.0 -38.0 -43.0 -41.0 -43.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   33.0  31.0  30.0  28.0  26.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   5.0   8.0   4.0   7.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.20

 IO022025 251005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.