Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251006 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 60.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.50 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 33.4 32.2 28.9 25.9 15.0 13.6 14.0 U U U N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 19.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.5 90.5 90.5 92.4 96.5 96.5 98.6 98.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -40.0 -24.0 -22.0 -22.0 -34.0 -23.0 -39.0 -41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 31.0 31.0 28.0 29.0 26.0 25.0 27.0 26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 IO022025 251006 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 60.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.