Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251006 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 60.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.30 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.7 35.7 29.0 30.1 24.3 17.2 27.7 31.8 U U N N N F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 15.0 19.0 21.0 23.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.5 100.5 100.5 104.4 104.4 106.5 110.7 110.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -27.0 -33.0 -29.0 -21.0 -31.0 -53.0 -75.0 -56.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 31.0 28.0 27.0 23.0 22.0 24.0 25.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 8.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 N U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 IO022025 251006 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 60.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.