Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251006 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 60.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.00 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 30.6 28.1 28.2 20.1 19.0 28.6 28.6 U U N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 15.0 19.0 19.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.5 105.5 105.5 105.5 109.4 111.5 111.5 111.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -33.0 -29.0 -31.0 -39.0 -13.0 -21.0 -32.0 -48.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 30.0 30.0 29.0 32.0 29.0 28.0 25.0 24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 IO022025 251006 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 60.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.