Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  27.0  25.2  20.1  20.2  25.9  29.5  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  14.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.4 123.6 119.4 119.4 119.4 119.4 123.6 123.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0 -33.0 -29.0 -15.0 -34.0 -48.0 -49.0 -47.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  32.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  26.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.2%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 IO022025 251007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  27.0  25.2  20.1  20.2  25.9  29.5  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  32.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  26.0  25.0  25.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%