Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251007 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.30 F TC SIZE [%] 34.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 19.7 14.2 15.0 16.2 19.6 20.3 20.5 N N F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 15.0 15.0 18.0 15.0 13.0 12.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 119.4 115.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -40.0 -37.0 -42.0 -46.0 -44.0 -47.0 -46.0 -37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 26.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 24.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 5.6% 2.9% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 8.8% 1.2% 5.0% 70kt / 48h 2.5% 1.2% 1.8% 65kt / 72h 4.5% 2.9% 3.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.64 IO022025 251007 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 34.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 19.7 14.2 15.0 16.2 19.6 20.3 20.5 N N U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 26.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 24.0 25.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%