Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251007 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 61.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.0 19.7 20.0 19.8 19.3 20.7 19.7 24.2 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 18.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -29.0 -45.0 -40.0 -38.0 -50.0 -41.0 -31.0 -21.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 24.0 24.0 26.0 26.0 24.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 2.6% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 5.2% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 8.1% 1.0% 4.6% 70kt / 48h 2.1% 1.0% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 6.1% 3.0% 4.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.66 IO022025 251007 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 61.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.0 19.7 20.0 19.8 19.3 20.7 19.7 24.2 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 24.0 24.0 26.0 26.0 24.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%