Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     61.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  22.0  21.1  19.7  19.9  21.0  22.2  24.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 123.6 123.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -44.0 -38.0 -38.0 -49.0 -52.0 -37.0 -31.0 -19.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   24.0  27.0  27.0  26.0  25.0  23.0  21.0  21.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.5%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%        1.2%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.1%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%        3.2%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 IO022025 251008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     61.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  22.0  21.1  19.7  19.9  21.0  22.2  24.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   24.0  27.0  27.0  26.0  25.0  23.0  21.0  21.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%