Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.5  24.8  24.2  24.6  24.6  25.3  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  15.0  12.0   7.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        126.5 126.5 126.5 126.5 124.4 118.5 116.6 114.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -26.0 -19.0 -34.0 -21.0  -2.0 -12.0  -2.0 VU VU  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   28.0  25.0  24.0  24.0  22.0  26.0  24.0  26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        0.4%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        1.2%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 IO022025 251009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.5  24.8  24.2  24.6  24.6  25.3  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   28.0  25.0  24.0  24.0  22.0  26.0  24.0  26.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%