Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022025 251009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  25.4  24.1  22.4  25.3  22.6  29.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  15.0  12.0   6.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 122.4 120.5 118.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -20.0 -34.0 -31.0  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0  -8.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   25.0  23.0  24.0  23.0  22.0  26.0  27.0  26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.8%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        1.3%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        1.0%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        2.4%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 IO022025 251009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  25.4  24.1  22.4  25.3  22.6  29.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   25.0  23.0  24.0  23.0  22.0  26.0  27.0  26.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%