Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 61.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.90 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.1 25.2 24.6 24.2 21.5 23.2 24.4 21.0 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 17.0 18.0 18.0 17.0 14.0 10.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.7 128.6 128.6 128.6 128.6 122.4 122.4 116.6 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -41.0 -27.0 -22.0 -26.0 -23.0 -18.0 -20.0 U VU VU VU VU VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 25.0 27.0 24.0 24.0 23.0 23.0 26.0 21.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 4.1% 2.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 7.1% 1.6% 4.3% 70kt / 48h 1.6% 0.8% 1.2% 65kt / 72h 5.6% 2.5% 4.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.74 IO022025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 61.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.1 25.2 24.6 24.2 21.5 23.2 24.4 21.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 25.0 27.0 24.0 24.0 23.0 23.0 26.0 21.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%