Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 60.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.40 F TC SIZE [%] 38.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 23.0 19.5 18.4 26.0 24.4 23.3 20.6 N N N F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 15.0 13.0 13.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 124.4 120.5 120.5 120.5 122.4 114.8 120.5 137.3 N N N N N N N F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -27.0 -18.0 -24.0 -26.0 -11.0 -5.0 -15.0 -28.0 VU U VU VU U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 25.0 24.0 25.0 25.0 27.0 24.0 24.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.3% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 5.4% 1.2% 3.3% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 4.0% 1.9% 2.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 IO022025 251010 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 60.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.